October 2007 Archives
I want to sell my home for sale by owner. Is 1.5% a good amount to co-broke? Or will agents avoid me?
In most of the country, this is a buyer's market right now. You need to compete more strongly for that buyer's business than anyone else in order to win the sale.
When I'm working with a buyer, the contract says that I get a certain percentage. So it doesn't matter what your co-broke (aka CBB, paid to a buyer's agent by the listing agent or seller) is to me. If you don't pay it, my buyers will. Furthermore, my contract is non-exclusive, so I have incentive to get them into whatever property is going to make them happiest, as soon as possible. If I won't (or can't) do it, somebody else will, and that's how it should be, so if your property really is the best property for that client, the low co-broke won't stop me. As I said, I get my minimum percentage from any property I help the client with. Better the minimum off yours than nothing when somebody else turns them onto yours.
Even to agents in situations comparable to mine, however, a low CBB like that is very indicative of an owner who is overly greedy, has over-priced the property, and won't negotiate it down to anything reasonable. I've seen this at least dozens of times, probably hundreds. No exceptions to this rule yet. Better I just don't waste my time or worse, that of my clients.
This is on top of the constant issues of dealing with a For Sale By Owner (FSBO), 99% plus of whom want me to act as their agent. or at least do the work of their agent and assume that liability, as well as the buyers'. Well, I don't do dual agency anyway, and I certainly don't do it unpaid, and because there's nobody with E&O insurance on the other side of the equation, I can do all of my due diligence and then some, but because the seller lies, I still end up sued by an unhappy buyer because I'm the only one involved they can get money from. FSBOs have literally 100 times the disclosure problems agent represented properties do. Trying to persuade owners who think they did everything they need to by putting a sign in the yard to fulfill the rest of their legal obligations is a painful process, and getting them to negotiate in good faith is chancy. I've had - and heard from other agents - more "chiseler" episodes from trying to buy a FSBO property. The probability of dealing with the "chiseler" goes up by at least a factor of 10 for all FSBO properties. And if you think I don't cover this with my clients, you're wrong. It's part of my job to let them know the risks of what they might be getting into, before they're in the middle of them. A good percentage of all clients comes straight out and tells me that they don't want to consider FSBOs once I've explained the facts.
Yes, a lot of this is "guilt by association" type judgments. Nonetheless, it's how you are asking people to view you. People who hang out with outlaw biker gangs are presumed to be outlaw bikers. Doesn't matter if you wear a suit and tie and a $400 haircut have a nice genteel manner. You're an outlaw biker gang member, and until and unless people get to know you as an individual, that's the perception you're going to have to live with. (Lest my meaning be mistaken, I'm pulling a hypothetical example. I don't think I've ever actually met or seen an outlaw biker gang. There was a large biker club seated next to us at a restaurant a couple weeks ago. Their clothes and haircut were a little out of the ordinary, but they were mostly like other folks. Had a great conversation about our respective kids with one couple). I'd like to have the time to individually know all of the properties available well enough to discard guilt by association, but there aren't enough hours in the day.
Finally, if my buyer's cash is a little tight in the first place, and buyer cash to close is the number one obstacle to a successful transaction, the fact that they're going to have to come up with that money out of their pocket can be a deal-killer right there. It's a "lose your license" offense for agents to attempt to negotiate a higher CBB at point of offer in my state. Agents do it anyway, but I have zero sympathy for them when they get caught. But having to come up with that extra amount of cash can drive my buyers below a breakpoint on the loan, and possibly even torpedo the loan altogether, which means it's significantly harder to convince myself your property is the best one for the client.
One more thing: For agents who get exclusive buyer's agency agreements, as opposed to the non-exclusive ones I work with, your property is not a contender. Period, end of sentence. You're making them work too hard, plus they want the highest CBB they can get, and they get paid no matter who helps the buyers buy, and they have enough control to make it very difficult for a buyer to go to a place with a low CBB. Not to mention that their usual CBB is higher and this means yet more difference between what you're paying and what their contract calls for, meaning that even if their client should somehow find your property, and love it, the cash to close issue is going to make it very difficult for them to do business with you.
So you make the call:
Buyer's market, you have to make your property look more attractive than anyone else's to even attract attention. Price, condition, location - you've got to have something that stands out above the market to attract an offer in the first place, and the others have to be competitive as well..
Add the fact that a low CBB tells experienced buyer's agents that you're someone to stay away from
Add all of the FSBO issues, and there's a lot of them. They're not minor from the agent's perspective, and they're even worse from an informed buyer's.
Then top it off with hitting the buyer's cash to close, potentially killing a viable deal, and both the buyer and their agent want to know why they should bother with your property, as opposed to the one across the street, with a CBB that pays the buyer's agent what they've got coming without the buyer having to come up with cash, with an agent on the other side who at least might know your market and price it correctly, and is unlikely to try to deceive my client by not disclosing known issues, and is going to get all of the work done in a timely fashion without me having to work them over, because they want to get paid too, and they don't want this transaction coming back to bite them any more than I do.
Which one do you think buyers and their agents are going to find more attractive? Even if they're equivalent properties priced the same?
Caveat Emptor
My husband and I are on title and loan to a piece of property with 4 homes on it. We want to add 3 people to title. Can we do this if they are not on the loan? Also, any advice as to where I can find information as to how to hold title? Each party wants their percentage to go to next of kin and not to the rest of us on title.This is a property that my family all live on. Basically we all bought it but we couldn't put all of them on loan for various reasons. We do have a sort of "operating agreement" going for maintenance and stuff like that, so I just want to know if they can be added to title so it's all official.
There are significant perils in this, especially since you're the only one on the loan. I can envision half a dozen scenarios where you end up liable for the loan even though you no longer own the property, or end up only owning a smaller piece of the property. Nobody likes to consider ending up in court opposite a family member, but family members are much more likely a legal adversary than complete strangers. This stuff happens every day. Partition suits aren't exactly uncommon. I suspect a certain number of them may even be manufactured, because a multi-residence property may be more valuable as multiple legally separate lots.
Quitclaiming is easy, and requires no permission from anyone, but you really need to understand the consequences of what you intend to do before you do it. Furthermore, there's more than one way to hold title, each of which means different things. Joint Tenants, Tenants in Common, trust, corporation, partnership, etcetera. You need to choose a form of ownership that protects you, while still serving your needs.
I'd seriously suggest getting a partnership or corporation agreement executed first, and quitclaiming that way, but you really need to pay a real estate attorney for some advice, first, and you'll be better off following their advice than mine.
Not that I'm a big fan of lawyers. But the hour of time you pay for now will likely save you at least a million dollars down the road, from the type of property you're talking about. Ounce of prevention and all that.
Caveat Emptor
It's a well known fact that not all factors in real estate are equally important, and not all property investments perform equally well. A critical part of successfully choosing the right property, whether it's for investment or personal use, lies in realizing that some things about a given property are completely under your control once you purchase, some things are only controllable by large groups of people acting in concert, and a few things can't be changed at all.
There are graduations among the three, in fact, it's more or less a continuous spectrum from picking up a piece of trash to weather and earth movement. Just because you can't control it doesn't mean you can't take it into account before you decide on where to spend your money. Once you've bought, of course, you're stuck with what events happen to have an effect upon that given location. Just because there hasn't been an earthquake there in 6000 years of recorded history doesn't mean it's impossible for there to be an earthquake. But if the area has a history of earthquakes, fires, landslides, you name it, or even just a known susceptibility, you're wise to take it into account. This extends into human controlled areas as well. Never been so much as loitering within ten miles? Nice, but that doesn't stop the head of the local mob from buying the house next door to yours later on, or the FBI from renting it for their Witness Protection Program (and no, that's one neither you nor I am likely to find out unless and until gunfire starts, but that doesn't stop the crooks looking for those witnesses!). One of the aspects of this being a free country is that bad people are pretty much equally free to go where they want unless they're actually in confinement somewhere.
There are, however, all sorts of known factors about a property that you can consider, and a good agent can really hep you with. Sometimes it's a matter of capability (whether you can), sometimes of knowledge, sometimes of willingness, and sometimes, of visualization, whether you can really visualize the place with the changes made.
Knowing that difference is money.
Serious money, especially in a high cost area like mine. Knowing what you can change and what is beyond your control. Knowing what stuff costs, in general, is a really valuable piece of knowledge for an agent, and whether it's likely to be worth the money you spend.
Some stuff, like trash in the yard, paint on the walls, and carpet on the floors, is so easy to change it doesn't hardly register. Yes, good carpet costs thousands of dollars, but it's worth every penny at sale time. Paint is cheaper. Window coverings, All of this is superficial, and can be changed easily, but unless you're an experienced agent you would not believe how many times I've heard arguments against purchasing a property that amount to "I don't want to have to spend $4000 to save $40,000!" Then they go out and buy another property for that $40,000 more, and stillspend that $4000 - or more - changing out the already good looking stuff that was already there for other good looking stuff, when they could have saved $40,000 off the purchase price by simply realizing they were going to replace it anyway, and buying the property that was trashed. I don't care how often I've seen it. It still blows my mind, every time. And if you're looking to sell, by all that's holy, you'll make a lot more dealing with it yourself than giving Martha Stewart Jr. a carpet allowance. The idea is that you want as much of Martha's money in your pocket as possible! With an allowance, you not only pay several times over in the sales price, you're also volunteering to pay some of the money you do get right out again!
Appliances. Why in the nine billion names of god are some buyers so particular about the appliances? The vast majority of appliances are personal property and are going to go away with the current owner. Who cares if the refrigerator is avocado green now? It's going away. If the owners do leave it, I know places that will pay you money for the privilege of hauling away functional appliances, and then you can put your burnt orange one in its place. Even if the appliances are attractive, unless they're built into the property, they're going away. It's not like it's going to be hard finding a flat black or stainless steel replacement. But when you're selling, it really is a good way to sucker more money out of people, and unless you build it in or agree to leave it in the sales contract - a concession the buyers will pay dearly for - you get to take them with you! How cool is that?
Surfaces are a little harder, but I do not understand why people are willing to reward current previous owners who built in things like granite counter tops or travertine floors. Actually, I do. It's all part and parcel of that same desire that Mr. and Ms. Middle Class want to have their home be beautiful, so they'll spend $50,000 more to buy the property that's beautiful now, and then they'll come along and replace all that beautiful stuff with equally beautiful stuff that's more in line with their taste. But granite counter tops, travertine floors, etcetera aren't all that expensive to put in (why do you think they're so popular with developers now?) and they do age. If you stay in the property twenty years, you're going to want to put in new ones before you sell. But guess what? You paid all of that opportunity cost, and interest on all of that cost, all of these years, and now you're having to install new ones just to come close to breaking even on what you've already spent. Smart Investors are looking for the properties where they can get those bumps up in value themselves by putting them in and flipping the property off to Mr. and Ms. Middle Class.
Similar to all the preceding examples, lighting is a relatively cheap investment that pays off. Lots of nice bright soft lumens. Some people will pay big bucks without realizing why, not to mention that light bulbs are both cheap and easy to change and the wiring lasts basically forever, so you can fix it up after you own it, enjoy it all those years you live in it, and still get the bump up in value when you go to sell. Providing, of course, you or your agent has the presence of mind to recognize the opportunity, and you don't insist on having it already in place.
Not quite so easy are windows for natural light. It's very hard to go wrong with too many windows, or too big. Nonetheless, you have to be careful not to sabotage your structural support. And of course, you're cutting through walls. This isn't cheap; but it is often worth the money. Just like electrical lights. It'll make lots of folks willing to spend big bucks without understanding why.
This contrasts to bad or old wiring. It just won't hold the load modern dwellings need to, or doesn't have enough outlets. Back in the 1930s, one outlet per room was plenty. These days, code requires one per eight linear feet of wall in new housing. The house I grew up in had a thirty five amp master fuse. That may not be enough for a linen closet, nowadays, but those houses are still out there. It isn't cheap to upgrade their wiring, but if you've got to do it, overkill isn't much more expensive. If you're running all new wiring and putting in new breakers and new outlets, the cost differential to make it way more robust than absolutely necessary is perhaps 1%. Instead of 500 amp service, consider at least doubling that. As long as you're putting in one outlet every eight linear feet, make it a four or six plug outlet (with wiring robust enough to match). Point of fact, investors who flip rarely upgrade wiring - it doesn't pay off in sales price. But if you need to do it in order to make your family comfortable, overdo it. It doesn't cost any more per hour for an electrician to run bigger wires, install bigger breakers, or put in a bigger socket. So you spend $1 extra per outlet - if it keeps you from having to do it again. There's been a steady increase in the amount of electrical load for the average house over the last eighty years or so. I wouldn't bet on that changing any time soon, and when you go to sell in twenty or thirty years, the electrical situation will still make buyers happy. Unless that house falls down around your ears in the meantime, you'll be glad you did. Here's another thing I don't understand: People will act like it's no big deal to upgrade the electrical service, even though it's much more costly than any of the stuff you've already read about. Maybe because they don't understand what's involved, or maybe because it's not obvious on the surface, but a house where the electrical grid will handle your requirements is easily worth $30,000 or more than one that won't - because if it won't, guess who's spending that money?
Towards the high end of the subspectrum involving personal control, you're pretty much stuck with the architecture. Put another room on that doesn't match, and people will start describing the house as "ramshackle". Houses where everything matches get more than houses where there are obvious mismatches. Short of hiring a bulldozer and starting over, your architecture is your architecture. Ditto basic construction. If it started with adobe, you'd do well to stay with adobe. If you don't like adobe, don't buy adobe.
Right at the extreme of personal control is the lot you're buying. Unless you can persuade one of your neighbors to sell, it is what it is. Don't count on that happening.
Getting into things you can't control, but can influence, is the homeowner's association. If there's a homeowner's association, you can influence it by getting involved. You can't control it by yourself, and you can't make it go away, except by not buying where there's a HOA. Learn the rules, and learn the neighborhood, before you buy. If your rules aren't something you can abide by, be certain Mrs. Grundy is going to do her best to harass you into doing so. This starts at letters and goes through fines, and might even include foreclosure. If your neighbors are at war with each other before you buy, that's likely to continue indefinitely afterwards. Just because there's no war right now doesn't mean one won't start the instant you buy. The more recently it was built, and the higher end the property, the more likely it is there will be a HOA. If you buy where there's an HOA, it's more likely one of my grandfathers will give birth to triplets than that HOA will go away (FYI: if being old and male in a species where it's the female who gestates and rarely to more than one child at a time isn't enough for you, my grandfathers are dead). HOAs really are a good guardian of property values, but they sure can make an ordinary person who just wants to enjoy their property miserable.
You can't do a darned thing as an individual about the surrounding property, or the neighborhood. If all around you are 3 bedroom 1.75 bath properties that sell for $400,000, that's the mean your property will tend towards and be judged by. In some areas, $400,000 is a mansion. Around here, it's nothing nearly so grand. You may be able to get a little more if you've got a fourth bedroom, or an extra large lot, but a 6 bedroom 4 bath place will not be worth twice as much, simply because of the surroundings. In fact, it's unlikely you'll get more than 25% extra, that being a relevant appraisal standard. Even if someone agrees to pay it (they won't), lenders won't lend based upon it. That property is a misplaced improvement. It's fine if you just happen to like the neighborhood, but don't expect that your house will sell for twice as much because it's twice as big or twice as nice. Three words: Not. Gonna. Happen. Keep this in mind when you're buying or upgrading your property, also. On the flip side, this can help properties that are below that neighborhood average. Everything around them pulls them up. But it also means that there's a sharp limit to the improvements that are worthwhile.
Traffic, whether you're on a busy street or a busy corner, parks, shopping and other neighborhood amenities, you can consider to be essentially fixed characteristics. No one individual controls them. Even if you get yourself elected mayor, you'll find yourself checked by the power of the rest of the government. There's nothing you can do to advantage yourself without disadvantaging someone else, and if you want the most primal scream of most suburban dwellers, talk to them about lowering property values. It sends people completely around the bend, mental health wise. Sometimes you get lucky and something good happens. Sometimes you get unlucky and the opposite occurs. But it's not under the control of any one person. Know this ahead of time. Acknowledge it to yourself, and worship at the altar of accepting these things as they are. By the way, if I were selling, I'd make certain your prospective buyer is aware of upcoming issues that may negatively influence the neighborhood. Even if you didn't know, if they can make a case that you should have, that may be good enough to win in the courts. It depends upon the jurisdiction. Talk to a lawyer in your area to be certain.
Of course, the geography of the land you can consider as fixed. Weather also. Even if you own a large enough parcel to move your house to a better location on the lot, or even to level that hill that's threatening to slide down on top of you every time it rains, your return on that investment is not going to repay the cash it costs you. Earthquakes, wildfires, tornadoes, hurricanes, floods. You might was well consider that the price tag includes a certain probability per year of each.
Knowing, or learning, the difference between what you do and don't control, and what is and isn't profitable to upgrade, is a large part of the battle of finding a good property to invest in, whether you intend to flip in two months or whether you intend to live there for the rest of your life. A good agent, who's not dependent upon the tollbooth model of business, will be an immense help to the selection process or the sales process, and likely to make - or save - you enough money to pay their commission several times over, and more so if you include them in your planning process.
Caveat Emptor
Governor to Scammers, Looters: 'You WILL Pay'
"We are also going after the scam artists, price gougers, and shady contractors and anyone else going after anyone else who preys on people hurt by these fires," he said. "We are as serious about protecting people from cheats and criminals as we are about protecting them from fire.""If anyone tries to exploit this tragedy I will make sure you will pay for rest of your life," added Schwarzenegger. "We will arrest them and we will prosecute them to the fullest extent of the law."
I'd be a little bit concerned if it were me the Terminator was talking about. Not that this will deter the scum of course. But, to riff another of his movies, I'd probably be wishing it was a tumor instead. Understand this about the man: when he sets goals, he keeps them. No matter what they are.
We got a few minutes of rain last night where I am. It was likely more where the fires are. Combined with persistent efforts on behalf of the fire folk, that appears to have made a critical difference. Things are looking decidedly rosier than yesterday.
10-27-07 11:54 a.m. Peutz Valley Road, along with its ancillary streets, is now open to residents and the general public alike. El Monte Valley, including the entirety of both El Monte Road and Willow Road, is now open to residents and the general public alike.
10-27-07 3:48 p.m. All Evacuation Orders Are Lifted For The Harris Fire.
The following areas are newly opened:
* Carveacre Region
* Lawson Valley Region
* Jamul Region
This also includes the following previously reopened areas:
Potrero Region; Tecate Region; Dulzura Region; Barrett Junction Region; Engineer Springs Region; Deerhorn Valley Region; Indian Springs Region
All of these areas are open to residents only. The following road closures still in effect due to road work:
* Highway 94 at Barrett Smith East
* Highway 188 and Highway 94
10-27-07 4:08 p.m. The following communities impacted by the Witch Fire are now open. The area is specified by a box created by:
* Areas north of San Pasqual Valley Road and Hwy 78.
* Areas east of North Lake Wohlford Road and Valley Parkway
* Areas west of Black Canyon Road and Sutherland Road
* Areas south of Canal Road
Cleveland National Forest is still closed for recreation purposes.
6:25 p.m. According to CAL FIRE, the Poomacha Fire is the only blaze in San Diego County with active flames along the perimeter. About 2,690 residents of the Palomar Mountain and Pauma Valley area remain under an evacuation order tonight, as the fire remains active in those communities. Fire officials will re-evaluate the situation tomorrow.
7:44 p.m. The Tecate port of entry will reopen to passenger vehicle and pedestrian traffic at 5 a.m. on Monday, October 29, U.S. Customs and Border Protection officials announced today.
The port will resume its normal operating hours of 5 a.m. to 11 p.m. to process on average 2,500 passenger vehicles and over 7,000 people daily that enter the U.S. at the eastern San Diego County border facility. Due to roadway safety concerns by state officials, all cargo trucks will still be required to enter and exit the U.S. at the Otay Mesa or Calexico commercial ports of entry until the roadways leading to the port are certified safe for big, heavy vehicles.
Fire map current as of 1830 on 10/27.
Cal Fire this morning:
Harris Fire
Harris Ranch Road & Hwy 94
San Diego CountyThis fire has burned 90,750 acres and is 65 percent contained. The fire started October 21 and is burning at Harris Ranch Road and both sides of Highway 94 in Portrero in San Diego County. There have been 21 civilian and 16 firefighter injuries, as well as one death on this fire. 206 homes and 247 outbuildings have been destroyed, and 252 additional structures are damaged. Damage assessments are still being conducted.
All evacuations have been lifted. Re-entry for residents only is being allowed.
Witch Fire
Witch Creek Area East of Ramona
San Diego CountyThis fire has burned 197,990 acres and is 90 percent contained. The Witch Fire has joined the Poomacha fire in the north. Residents are being allowed re-entry into to area.
1,040 homes and 414 outbuildings have been destroyed. 70 homes and 25 outbuildings have been damaged. Additionally, 239 vehicles have been destroyed.
Poomacha Fire
Highway 76, Pauma Valley
San Diego CountyThis fire started October 23 as a structure fire on the Lajolla Indian Reservation. It has burned 49,150 acres and is 50 percent contained. The Poomacha Fire has joined with the Witch Fire to the south. 136 homes and 19 outbuildings have been destroyed. 500 homes remain threatened.
Evacuations are still in place for the communities of Valley Center, Rincon, Pauma Valley, Pala Reservation, and Palomar.
Horno/Ammo Fire
Camp Pendleton
San Diego CountyThe Horno/Ammo Fire has burned 21,084 acres since October 23 and is now 100 percent contained.
Rice Fire
Rice Canyon
San Diego CountyThis fire has burned 9,000 acres in Rice Canyon in Northern San Diego County and is 100 percent contained. 206 homes, 2 commercial properties and 40 outbuildings have been destroyed. Evacuations have been lifted.
I am buying a home, but the contract said they wont sell the oil rights, what does this means? should I buy
That was J Paul Getty's great contribution to real estate, and why he got so rich. He retained the mineral rights on every parcel he sold, and it has become standard practice in the industry nationwide, if not worldwide, with respect to most property. Such rights typically pass without any rights of ingress (meaning they can't enter your property), but it typically isn't difficult for the holders to buy rights of ingress from someone in the area. This means they can't sink a mine shaft on your property unless you sell them the rights to do so. It is to to be noted that you're not likely to be real happy if one of your neighbors sells them access, either, but you can't control that directly. Zoning boards and conditional use permits and all of that, not to mention the courts. I'm neither a lawyer nor any kind of elected official so I am not going there.
Odds are that the person selling you the property does not, themselves, own the mineral rights. Most developers have bought the property without mineral rights attached, or if they did buy them, they have most likely long since sold them to some speculator. Even if you buy from a developer, they probably don't own the mineral rights any more, let alone the property's post developer homeowners, who didn't buy them in the first place. Since they can't sell what they don't own, that's what the contract is going to say, period. If you want a parcel with mineral rights, look elsewhere. If you want a place to live, all it means is that the chances of you getting a mineral windfall change from remote to zero.
Caveat Emptor
9:28 a.m. The community of Deerhorn Valley has been reopened to residents only.
Residents must enter from the west side of Hwy. 94 Honey Springs Road is closed to traffic just north of Deerhorn Road.
9:41 a.m. Evacuation Orders Lifted for: Dulzura, residents only Indian Springs and Proctor Valley, residents only Engineer Springs and Barrett Junction, residents only Residents must enter from west side of Highway 94. Many areas of Highway 94 are reduced to one lane. Highway 94 at Barrett Smith East remains closed for roadwork.
INCIDENT NAME: COUNTYWIDE FIRE UPDATE 156 INCIDENT DATE/TIME: October 27, 2007 REPORT DATE/TIME: 8:25 am San Diego County Operational Area EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER Evacuation Order Lifted for Japatul The evacuation order for Japatul has been lifted for residents to return home. Evacuation orders REMAIN for Lawson Valley & Carveacre.
Confirmed damaged or destroyed structures in unincorporated areas 13 page .pdf. Go to city websites for lists of destroyed property within city limits.
Harris Fire Harris Ranch Road & Hwy 94 San Diego CountyThis fire has burned 85,800 acres and is 55 percent contained. The fire started October 21 and is burning at Harris Ranch Road and both sides of Highway 94 in Portrero in San Diego County. There have been 21 civilian and 16 firefighter injuries, as well as one death on this fire. 188 homes, 1 commercial properties and 222 outbuildings have been destroyed, and 252 additional structures are damaged. Damage assessments are still being conducted. 1,500 homes are still threatened.
Evacuation orders remain in effect. Re-entry for residents only was allowed in the Thousand Trails, Potrero and Tecate neighborhoods. Residents are being allowed to re-enter parts of Jamul as well as the area from Otay Lakes Road to Pio Pico Thousand Trails. The communities of Lyons Valley, Lawson Valley, Carve Acres, Portrero, Barrett Junction, Barett Lake area, Engineer Springs, Dulzura, Deerhorn Valley, and Jamul are threatened.
Witch Fire
Witch Creek Area East of Ramona
San Diego CountyThis fire has burned 197,990 acres and is 60 percent contained. The Witch Fire has joined the Poomacha fire in the north. Mandatory evacuations are in place for the community of Julian and there is still a threat to Pine Hills, Cuyamaca, Wynola, Santa Ysabel, Alpine, Mesa Grande and Harbison Canyon. Fire progression has slowed to the west, southwest, and northwest. Residents are being allowed to return to portions of Poway, Valley Center, Escondido, Rancho Santa Fe, San Diego, Ramona and Rancho Bernardo, Del Dios, and Lake Hodges areas. Re-entry of residents is also occurring in the towns of Julian, Wynola, and Cuyamaca. Wildcat Canyon is closed. Highway 67 is closed from Poway to Ramona.
911 homes, 30 commercial properties, and 175 outbuildings have been destroyed. 62 homes, 10 commercial properties and 50 outbuildings have been damaged. 1,000 residences, 100 commercial properties, and 300 outbuildings are still threatened. 239 vehicles have been destroyed.
Poomacha Fire
Highway 76, Pauma Valley
San Diego CountyThis fire started October 23 as a structure fire on the Lajolla Indian Reservation. It has burned 43,000 acres and is 45 percent contained. The Poomacha Fire has joined with the Witch Fire to the south. 78 homes and 19 outbuildings have been destroyed. 2,000 homes remain threatened.
Evacuations are in progress in Valley Center. The communities of Valley Center, Rincon, Pauma Valley, Pala Reservation, and Palomar are threatened. This fire has resulted in 14 firefighter injuries.
Horno/Ammo Fire
Camp Pendleton
San Diego CountyThe Horno/Ammo Fire has burned 21,084 acres since October 23 and is 90 percent contained.
Rice Fire
Rice Canyon
San Diego CountyThis fire has burned 9,000 acres in Rice Canyon in Northern San Diego County and is 80 percent contained. 206 homes, 2 commercial properties and 40 outbuildings have been destroyed. 200 homes are threatened currently. Evacuation orders are in effect for Fallbrook and outlying areas. Portions of Fallbrook have been reopened to residents.
"we're not out of the woods yet"
Partially contained fires are just that -- partially contained. And time may not be on the firefighters' side."Until we can get some sort of control line around these fires, it's still a major hazard," he said. "There a possibility of a new high-pressure system coming into this area in the next couple of days."
forecast for Campo (Harris Fire)
Today: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of smoke. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south.Tonight: Areas of smoke before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north.
Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 84. East wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 49. East wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Monday: Sunny, with a high near 82. North wind 5 to 15 mph becoming south. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Come on, rain! Because if that doesn't happen, look what we're going to get the next couple of days. Back to Santa Ana conditions - ACK!
Julian Forecast (Poomacha/Witch)
Today: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of smoke. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.Tonight: Areas of smoke before 11pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. South wind around 5 mph becoming north.
Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 80. East wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 54. East wind between 5 and 10 mph.
Monday: Sunny, with a high near 78. East wind between 5 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Once again, come on rain!
A cool website for fire information that I found this morning. They've got individual webpages for all the major fires
The maps are at least 24 hours out of date, though.
Lyon's Peak webcam shows the smoke around Barrett reservoir being a lot less intense.
Cuyamaca North Peak would probably help for the Poomacha/Witch Fire if it were pointed north rather than east.
I was really hoping to get some new satellite photos, but nothing of that nature seems to be available.
The question that inspired this was
can a mortgage company use the flood insurance claim money towards homeowners mortgage loans?
This is equally applicable to every other form of insurance on your home - earthquake, regular homeowner's insurance, and any others that you may have or require.
The short answer is yes.
The reason that the lender requires being added to every policy of insurance you have on your home is so they have a claim on the policy proceeds. Let's say you buy a $500,000 home for nothing down, and the value of the structure is $150,000 while the value of the land is $350,000. Let's say the house burns down next week. If they weren't on there as beneficiary, you could theoretically take that check for $150,000 and split, leaving them with a $500,000 loan that they're maybe going to net $270,000 for by selling the property that secured it - after all the time for foreclosure, et al, which means they're out all those costs plus thousands of dollars in interest. If you're a lender, you're going to suffer this loss once at most before you decide not to trust anybody.
On the other hand, the lender doesn't want the property or a partial repayment. They want the loan repaid in full. What they're going to do is sit on any funds they get and make certain they're used to rebuild, unless they have some reason to believe that rebuilding is a bad risk. Banks don't throw good money after bad, so if this is the case, they're going to keep the money. On the other hand, if you've been keeping your payments up, they're going to want you to rebuild. Their taking custody of the money is a way to make certain that you do.
Caveat Emptor.
(I will be making occasional updates over the day. Questions or information, email danmelson (at) the domain name or comment)
Dale Franks of Q and O went to see results of the Witch Fire up close and personal on Wednesday (the 24th)
2 a.m. Only 350 people remain at the shelter at Qualcomm Stadium and the City of San Diego is planning to close the shelter at noon today, Oct. 26. 3:56 a.m. Residents at the Qualcomm Stadium shelter will be relocated to the Del Mar Fairgrounds around noon today, Oct. 26.
Can't have them taking up parking spots at the Charger game without paying, can we? (Sometimes a little snark is called for)
4:15 a.m. Bottled water is available for Ramona residents at the Ramona Rodeo Grounds at 434 Aqua Lane. Water from the Ramona Municipal Water District is currently unsafe, and residents have been advised not to drink or use the water in their homes and businesses until further notified.
Cal Fire update:
Harris Fire
Harris Ranch Road & Hwy 94
San Diego CountyThis fire has burned 84,300 acres and is 20 percent contained. The fire started October 21 and is burning at Harris Ranch Road and both sides of Highway 94 in Portrero in San Diego County. There have been 21 civilian and 12 firefighter injuries, as well as one death on this fire. 97 homes, 2 commercial properties and 17 outbuildings have been destroyed, and 250 additional structures are damaged. Damage assessments are still being conducted. 1,500 homes are still threatened.
Evacuation orders remain in effect. Re-entry for residents only was allowed in the Thousand Trails, Potrero and Tecate neighborhoods. Today residents only will be allowed to re-enter Jamul. The communities of Lyons Valley, Lawson Valley, Carveacre, San Miguel, Portrero, Barrett Junction, Barett Lake area, Engineer Springs, Dulzura, Deerhorn Valley, and homes along Millar Ranch Road are threatened
Witch Fire
Witch Creek Area East of Ramona
San Diego CountyThis fire has burned 197,990 acres and is 45 percent contained. The Witch Fire has joined the Poomacha fire in the north. Mandatory evacuations are in place for the community of Julian and there is still a threat to Pine Hills, Cuyamaca, Wynola, Santa Ysabel, Alpine, Mesa Grande and Harbison Canyon. Fire progression has slowed to the west, southwest, and northwest. Residents are being allowed to return to portions of Poway, Valley Center, Escondido, Rancho Santa Fe, San Diego, Ramona and Rancho Bernardo. Wildcat Canyon is closed. Highway 67 is closed from Poway to Ramona.
1,061 homes, 30 commercial properties, and 175 outbuildings have been destroyed. 62 homes, 10 commercial properties and 50 outbuildings have been damaged. 1,000 residences, 100 commercial properties, and 300 outbuildings are still threatened. 239 vehicles have been destroyed.
(It appears to me from the map that the actual Witch Fire flames are basically out - it's the Poomacha fire flames that appear to be going now)
Poomacha Fire Highway 76, Pauma Valley San Diego CountyThis fire started October 23 as a structure fire on the Lajolla Indian Reservation. It has burned 39,000 acres and is 35 percent contained. The Poomacha Fire has joined with the Witch Fire to the south. 60 homes and 19 outbuildings have been destroyed. 2,000 homes remain threatened.
Evacuations are in progress in Valley Center. The communities of Valley Center, Rincon, Pauma Valley, Hidden Meadows, Deer Springs, Vista and Palomar are threatened. This fire has resulted in 12 firefighter injuries.
Horno/Ammo Fire
Camp Pendleton
San Diego CountyThe Horno/Ammo Fire has burned 19,353 acres since October 23 and is 80 percent contained. The Horno Fire has two heads, one north bound tied into Basilone Road and the other south bound tied into Aliso Canyon Road. Firing Operations are being conducted on the northern head from San Onofre to Camp Horno and along Canyon Road to Bailone Road.
So my concerns last night about it getting into Oceanside have largely been abated.
Rice Fire Rice Canyon San Diego CountyThis fire has burned 9,000 acres in Rice Canyon in Northern San Diego County and is 40 percent contained. 206 homes, 2 commercial properties and 40 outbuildings have been destroyed. 200 homes are threatened currently. Evacuation orders are in effect for Fallbrook and outlying areas. Portions of Fallbrook have been reopened to residents. Three firefighters injuries have been reported.
Damage assessments from unincorporated areas 9 pages of addresses.
more fire maps, a little more useful to me, even if they've got Rancho Bernardo on the wrong side of the 15 (yes, there's some on the west side, but the vast majority is on the east)
mapping 2003 and 2007 burns (bottom of page). Notice that the area north of Barrett Reservoir, where the Harris Fire is currently burning, has been untouched for longer than that. Let the Harris Fire get into well-overgrown areas, particularly if the Santa Ana starts back up, and we could have a lot more burned.
A map of available fuel for fires, and an overview of fire activity the last few days. What did I say about how the Harris Fire is still dangerous?
Most of the media folk seem to live in the areas the Witch Fire hit early in the week. With that no longer so much of a factor, they've gone to coverage of aftermath, but the Harris and Poomacha fires are still dangerous.
Update 1 (12:30)
Driving around the city, this could be any day with merely bad smog. News services want to pretend it's over and don't want to report anything but aftermath, which is as predictable as gravity. People are tired of fire news, but there are two very dangerous ones still out there.
Lyon's Peak Webcam is back up and showing some pretty intense fire in the vicinity of Barrett Reservoir.
Evacuation Order Lifted for Western Jamul
Residents from the western Jamul communities are allowed to return home. The area will be open to residents and IDs will be checked.Residents will have access via Highway 94.
Road closures will remain at Lions Valley Road and the Skyline Truck Trail; Highway 94 at Honey Springs Road; and Highway 94 at Otay Lakes Road.
Evacuation Order Lifted for Areas of Valley Center
The Rincon and San Pasqual Reservations and areas north of Lake Wohlford are now open to residents and businesses only.The approximate area is represented by the following Thomas Brother Map Coordinates:
MP 1071: C-2 to C-7; D-1 to D-7; E-1 to E-7; F-1 to F-4
MP 1091: A-5 to A-7; B-2 to B-7; C-2 to C-7; D-1 to D-5; E-1 to E-4
MP 1110: G-1 to G-3; H-1 to H-3; J-1
MP 1111: A-1, A-2, B-1, C-1The following areas will remain closed:
Paradise Mountain/Skyline Ranch
Palomar Mountain (Highway 76 corridor from the Pala area to Highway 79)
Pala Reservation
Pauma Reservation
La Jolla Reservation
Rancho Heights (Areas south of Lake Wohlford, including « Bear Valley » and « Guejito
Ranch areas)
Evacuation Order Lifted for Highway 67 Corridor
Residents living on the Highway 67 corridor from the Poway City limits to Maple View Street are now allowed to return home.Evacuation Order Lifted for Areas of Wildcat Canyon
Areas in and around Wildcat Canyon Road south of the Barona Reservation are now open for repopulation.
Harris Fire update (.pdf)
Incident Start Date & Report Time: October 21, 2007 @ 9:30 a.m.
Incident Type: Wildland Fire Acres: 84,300 Acres Cause: Under Investigation
% Containment: 20% Estimated Containment: 10/31/07 Cost to Date: $5,800,000
Fatalities: 5 civilian Injuries: 7 firefighters, 21 civilians Vehicles/Equipment Destroyed: 1 Fire Engine
Structures Destroyed: 155 Residences; 2 Commercial Properties; 17 Outbuildings/Other
Structures Damaged: 250
Structures Threatened: 1,500
Resources: Hand Crews 28 Dozers 4 Engines 149 Air Tankers 3 Helicopters 9
Water Tenders 20 Overhead Personnel 169 Total Personnel: 1,341
Significant events: The fire jumped a portion of Lake Barrett posing an immediate threat to life and property
in the communities of Lawson Valley and Carveacre forcing evacuation orders for these communities.
Yesterday evacuation orders were lifted for the Western Jamul region as well as the area from Otay Lakes Road
to Pio Pico Thousand Trails, allowing residents to return home.
Major problems and concerns: Fire behavior remains active in old and extremely dry fuels. Heavy fuels and
steep terrain on the northern edge of the fire will present few control opportunities. Structure protection will
continue in Lyons Valley. Many resource orders will remain unfilled due to competing incidents in the Southern
part of the state. Fire commanders will continue with contingency planning which could include secondary
dozer lines as well as potential evacuations in threatened communities until containment is obtained.
Road Closures:
Highway 94 at SR-188 Highway 94 at Honey Springs Road
Highway 94 at Otay Lakes Road Jamul Drive at Fowler Canyon Road
Highway 94 at Melody Lane Skyline and Lawson Valley
Highway 94 at Steele Canyon Road Skyline and Lyons Valley Road
Highway 94 at Millar Ranch Road Lyons Valley at Japatul Valley
Highway 94 at Rancho Miguel Lyons Valley at Honey Springs Road
Highway 94 at Highway 54 Melody Lane and Proctor Valley Road
Highway 94 2 miles east of Harris Ranch Road
Evacuations: The following areas are currently under an "Evacuation Order": Lawson Valley, Carveacre,
Potrero, Barrett Junction, Engineer Springs, Dulzura, Deerhorn Valley, Indian Springs and North Jamul.
Evacuations Lifted: The "Point" in Spring Valley. Otay Lakes Road to the Pio Pico Thousand Trails and the
Western Jamul region.
(bolding in the quote above is mine) Remember that fuel map I showed you in the initial post this morning? This is not good for Campo, Lake Morena, and Pine Valley. These may be comparatively small communities and not that affluent, but I guarantee you the people who live there are every bit as important as the ones in the main city. Of course, living out there they've got "defensible space" engraved upon their thinking, so most should be okay even if the fire heads their way, but that doesn't change the pucker factor while it's going on.
11:18 a.m. - According to the Mayor's Office, the Chargers will play Sunday's game at Qualcomm Stadium. The Chargers will face the Houston Texans Sunday, October 28 at Qualcomm Stadium at 1:05 p.m.What did I tell you about nobody gets free parking at a Charger's game?
As a reminder, City Schools will reopen Tuesday the 30th, not Monday. County Schools will be re-opened on an individual basis (some of them are still threatened)
UPDATE 2 (17:10)
1:39 p.m. The Del Dios Highway was reopened at 1:30 p.m. Drivers still need to be cautious as there may be some downed power lines across side roads within the community of Del Dios that utility crews are still working on.
2:30 p.m. The following areas of the Dehesa-Harbison area are open for reentry:* All areas north of Willow Glen Drive
* All areas east of El Cajon
* All areas west of South Grade Road and Tavern Road
* All areas south of Interstate 8
2:55 p.m. Residents from the De Luz area and the Oak Crest Estates Mobile Home Park can now return to their homes.
The following areas of San Vincente are open for reentry. The area is specified by a box created by:* Areas north of Interstate 8
* Areas east of Poway
* Areas west of San Diego Country Estates
* Areas south of Highway 67Carveacre is still under a mandatory evacuation order. Japatul Road is still closed at Dehesa/Tavern Road. Japatul Valley Road south of Interstate 8 is closed.
3:17 p.m. All of Spring Valley and Jamacha are open for reentry.Evacuation notices partially lifted for Bonita and Sunnyside. The following areas of Bonita-Sunnyside are open for reentry. The area is specified by a box created by:
* Areas north of Chula Vista
* Areas east of Chula Vista and San Diego
* Areas west of Hwy 125
* Areas south of Jamacha Blvd
4:12 p.m. Further partial lift of Fallbrook evacuation order. Rainbow Glen Road in Fallbrook is now open to residents with I.D., along with the following ancillary roads:* Ranchbrook Road
* Aspen Road
* Sumac Summit
* Rosa Rancho Lane
* Lookout Mountain
Maps as of 2 pm
Note the burn areas near Highway 76 in north county and near Barrett Reservoir in east county. Still pretty intense.
Lyon's Peak Webcam showing intense black smoke from the vicinity of Barrett reservoir to the east. Looks like flames got right up to the lookout post!
I can't find much else new. The news services have turned away and I don't want to go risk getting in the fire fighters way. So barring future developments like that flare up I'm worried about north of Barrett Reservoir, this will be the last update.
Scapegoating, anyone?Brian Brady notes Barney Frank's misplaced quest for one.
1- Prohibition of "yield spread premium" as compensation to originators.2- Mandatory licensing of mortgage originators by a Federal registry or state regulator. This Bill does direct the Office of Thrift Supervision to establish a registry for bank employees who originate loans.
3- Ability to repay the loan must be established. Limits on cash-out refinances and a determination of a net tangible benefit to the borrower will apply.
4- Mandatory "pre-funding counseling" for certain "high-cost" loans by a certified HUD counselor.
All of these are severely brain damaged. In Zero Cost Real Estate Loans, I talk about what a good idea for the average consumer that using yield spread to pay your loan costs can be. Yes, you end up with a higher rate. But if you refinance every two years, the money you spend in interest doesn't even approach the money you don't spend on loan costs. Provision 2 is just a sop to the big lenders, to make brokers lives more difficult, while allowing them to scapegoat their bottom level employees who also take loan applications. I talk more a couple paragraphs down about the first part of provision 3, but the second part is another sop to big banking. If someone owns an asset, they should be able to manage their mortgage as they see fit. I can tell a prospective client that they don't appear to be able to afford something and advise them of such, but they're supposedly competent adults and my proper role, like that of an accountant, is advisory, not compulsory. But these sorts of loans lose a lot of money for lenders who over-compete for business in order to attract customers, whom they can hope to retain while selling them to marketers.
I went over the problems with the fourth proposal in Is This Supposed to be Helpful Legislation?, along with links to what others were saying.
Just this morning, Barry Campbell over at enrevanche pointed me to a new Business Week article that says North Carolina's infamous predatory lending laws may travel.
I don't do business in North Carolina and never have. But they have a 6% aggregate limit on total fees for a loan. When, even with negotiated discounts, it takes just over $3000 to get a loan done (closing costs), you tell me how many $50,000 loans are going to get done, with a 6% aggregate limit. Oh, and I I wasn't aware of this, but "The North Carolina Home Loan Protection Act bans penalties for borrowers who pay off their mortgages early," so that can't be used to cover the costs either, as I go over in Keeping Pre-payment Penalties Legal. One more factor: I believe North Carolina is a survey state, which adds something like $400 more to loan fees. I also believe it's a mortgage tax state, levying a tax on mortgages and refinancing. I don't know what that runs but I doubt it's less than hundreds of dollars.
I have to admit, the idea of nothing but full documentation loans has a certain appeal. Keeps me from having to compete with people who'd do every loan stated income, and sell everyone a house too expensive for them to afford. Furthermore, I'll bet that the entire difference between North Carolina and the national average in foreclosures would be due to this one difference. But self-employed people (with large amounts of deductions) and real estate investors (only get credit for 3/4 of rent, among other issues), both of which have problems qualifying under full documentation lending standards, might disagree with me.
So what's the issue? As I go over in Manufactured, Modular, and Site-Built Homes: How Lending Practices Drive the Sales Market, constricting the availability of loans constricts the price of housing. Were these practices to be mandatory elsewhere in the nation, that 25-30% deflation we've had in California would be just the beginning, and all of the other high cost areas as well (as what drives the cost of living up, except in DC and NYC, seems to be an abundance of successful entrepreneurs). Furthermore, real estate becomes a much less attractive capital investment, so it would have to become more of a "cash flow" investment, putting increased upwards pressure on rents just when some rental markets (like southern California) are set to explode upwards anyway.
Here's the REAL issue that politicians keep tap-dancing around, because they don't want to offend wealthy, campaign contributing lenders and real estate brokerages: There is no substitute for due diligence on an individual level. People have got to take the time to understand what they're getting into. They are legal adults, theoretically competent to manage their own affairs. If they're not capable of being responsible, why are they permitted to vote, drive cars, and sign loan Notes for hundreds of thousands of dollars? But there is no real financial education in the United States, except for those who make a career out of it, and all too often, that license is a cover for activities that would make any self-respecting shark shudder.
I read a posting just a few days ago on how one real estate practitioner built a very successful career at least partially upon a point he seemed inordinately proud of: Not asking people what their plans were. People don't like discussing their plans with folks. But it is precisely discussing future plans that enables a real professional to know what he or she should recommend to the client. Without that, even the most conscientious of us isn't much more than a sales person. You just want me to shut up and get you a million dollar home, I'm cool with that - but I am entitled to protect myself by asking you to agree that I have furnished you with no false promises of you being able to afford it, or that it's really worth what you paid in comparison to other properties at the time.
There is no substitute for real loan disclosure at the time of application, something the legislative branch has been expanding loopholes for for the last thirty years that I'm aware of, all in the name of "helping the consumer" but really in aid of campaign contributions from big chain brokerages and large mortgage lenders. Quite frankly, of the major household names in both, there's really only one that I haven't seen evidence of pervasive unethical practices that would amount to systematic fraud in any other industry, but legal loopholes, lax supervision requirements, and unwillingness to go for the real perpetrators keep these folks in business, occasionally sacrificing a few low echelon goats while those higher up make millions to hundreds of millions per year. That's why I finally got disgusted enough to start this website.
But it seems that comparatively few politicians really understood the lessons of Economics 101, or at least, they understand the benefits of campaign contributions more, and that's why you can't seem to keep a bad idea down.
Caveat Emptor
making updates to this post today, same as yesterday Scroll down. If you have something to tell me, comment or email danmelson (at) the domain name).
Wildfires spread but 'we've turned the corner'
No homes were lost Wednesday in San Diego, and fires within the city had no new flare-ups, San Diego Fire-Rescue Department spokesman Maurice Luque said.
327,000 total acres burned. That's 510 square miles. But only 27,000 more than end of day yesterday, a difference of only 9 percent.
I've always given Aguirre the benefit of the doubt until now. But he;s proven himself both an idiot and a busybody today
In separate interviews with The San Diego Union-Tribune yesterday, the police chief, fire chief and mayor's office said Aguirre urged them to consider such an exodus after the wildfires began Sunday. A spokesman for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger said the administration also was aware of the request.
1) First off, this is a free country. Anybody has the right to voluntarily decide to leave, forever or for a while. Some friends of mine in the neighborhood had done precisely that. Yeah. the air quality doesn't make life easy. But we're not threatened where I am. The Harris Fire got within about 8 miles - 8 miles filled with concrete and asphalt - before they stopped it outside Spring Valley. Not close.
2) Officials urging evacuation of the city sends entirely the wrong message. The blow to morale of the firefighters quite frankly would be severe. They might think, quite reasonably, that you don't trust them to do the job, and if there's nobody coming back anyway, why work so hard to save their house? Not to mention the morale of the citizens.
3) Except as the worst case of over-CYA in recorded history, it's just not his business. It's outside his job description. He's putting his ignorant nose in where he has no business having an official opinion.
Coming on top of this:
On Oct. 3, Aguirre rushed to the scene of the Mount Soledad landslide, wondering whether water-main breaks could have contributed to the problem. His actions, which included two forums for residents, angered the mayor.
Does he have qualifications as a civil engineer? Surveyor? Geologist? Any allied discipline? This is politics for personal gain, plain and simple. Anyone want to bet me he's on the ballot for something at the earliest opportunity? When it happens, I hope the citizens have the sense to get rid of him before he messes anything else up.
Updated map, road closures, properties confirmed destroyed by ZIP, etcetera
Poomacha Fire Highway 76, Pauma Valley San Diego CountyThis fire started October 23 as a structure fire on the Lajolla Indian Reservation. It has burned 35,000 acres and is 10 percent contained. 50 homes have been destroyed and 2,000 homes are threatened. Evacuations are in progress along the Highway 76 corridor. The communities of Valley Center, Rincon, Pauma Valley, Hidden Meadows, Deer Springs, Vista and Palomar are threatened. This fire has resulted in 12 firefighter injuries. 719 firefighters are currently assigned to this fire under unified command with CAL FIRE and the Cleveland National Forest. The estimated cost of this fire to date is $750,000. Poomacha Fire Information Line (619) 590-3160.
Horno/Ammo Fire
Camp Pendleton
San Diego CountyThe Horno/Ammo Fire has burned 10,000 acres since October 23. It is currently 40-50 percent contained. Sections of that fire have threatened Interstate 5, causing its closure from Highway 76 to San Onofre. The Horno Fire has two heads, one north toward San Onofre and one south toward Pulgas Rd. Camp Pendleton authorities have relocated the residents of one housing area, San Onofre 1 and 2, to San Mateo. That relocation, which affected approximately 800 family members, was a precautionary measure in light of the proximity of the Horno fire. Horno/Ammo Fire Information Line (866) 430-2764.
Camp Pendleton fire officials have announced they are fighting a new fire in southeastern Camp Pendleton near the San Luis Rey Gate. Residents of Serra Mesa Housing have been instructed to relocate to the 22 Area Parade Deck as a precautionary measure due to their proximity to the fire. Military police are on the scene assisting in relocating military members and their families to a safe location on base. Air assets are being utilized to assist in fighting the fire. The San Luis Rey Gate is closed to in bound an doutbound traffic. For more information, military members and their families are encouraged to visit the base Web site at www.pendleton.usmc.mil or call the main information line at (866) 430-2764.
Harris Fire
Harris Ranch Road & Hwy 94
San Diego CountyThis fire has burned 75,000 acres and is 10 percent contained. The fire started October 21 and is burning at Harris Ranch Road and both sides of Highway 94 in Portrero in San Diego County. There have been 25 civilian injuries and one death as well as seven firefighter injuries on this fire. 155 homes, 2 commercial properties and 17 outbuildings have been destroyed in this fire and 250 additional homes have been damaged. 1,500 homes are still threatened. 4500 people have been evacuated and additional evacuations are being ordered. The communities of Chula Vista, San Diego, San Miguel, Portrero, Barrett Junction, Barett Lake area, Engineer Springs, Dulzura, Deerhorn Valley, Lawson Valley, Jamul, Lyons Valley and homes along Millar Ranch Road are threatened. 1,341 firefighters are assigned under unified command. The estimated cost of this fire to date is $3.4 million. Harris Fire Information Line (619) 590-3160.
Rice Fire
Rice Canyon
San Diego CountyThis fire has burned 9,000 acres in Rice Canyon in Northern San Diego County and is 20 percent contained. 206 homes, 2 commercial properties and 40 outbuildings have been destroyed. 1,500 homes are threatened currently. 35,000 people have been evacuated from the communities of Fallbrook and Deluz Canyon. Camp Pendleton and Oceanside are threatened. One firefighter injury has been reported. 1,095 firefighters are assigned to this fire under unified command. The estimated cost of this fire is $1.2 million. Rice Fire Information Line (619) 590-3160.
Witch Fire
Witch Creek Area East of Ramona
San Diego CountyThis fire has burned 196,240 acres and is 20 percent contained. Mandatory evacuations are in place for the community of Julian and there is still a threat to Pine Hills. 645 homes, 30 commercial properties, and 50 outbuildings have been destroyed. 250 homes, 10 commercial properties and 50 outbuildings have been damaged. 5,000 residences, 1,500 commercial properties, and 300 outbuildings are currently threatened. 12 firefighters have been injured on this fire. CAL FIRE Incident Command Team #10 is in command of this incident with 2,331 firefighters assigned. Wildcat Canyon is closed. Highway 67 is closed from Poway to Ramona. The estimated cost of this fire to date is $5 million. Witch Fire Information Line (619) 590-3160.
.pdf Fire Map, as of 3:30 Looks like Harris is currently burning the most area,
8:31 p.m. - According to Mayor Jerry Sanders, West Rancho Bernardo, Rancho Penasquitos, 4-S Ranch (city part only, not county area) and Santa Luz have been reopened. Area open is south of Rancho Bernardo Road, west of I-15, east of Rancho Santa Fe Farms Road and north of Highway 56.
Just an FYI reminder, President Bush will be visiting the area today.
With the Santa Ana gone, I'm hoping that today is what really breaks the fires' back. There are still endangered communities, but when you haven't got hot dry 50 mph winds pushing the flame, that makes a real difference in how fast it can move, which means their actions have a lot less reaction to them, and a lot more action.
UPDATE 1 (1150) Updates are going to be fewer and farther between today.
10:00 a.m. Evacuation Notice Lifted for Escondido. All areas within the City of Escondido previously evacuated have been re-opened to residents.Evacuation Notice Lifted for County's Portion of 4S Ranch
The County of San Diego has lifted the evacuation order its portion of 4S Ranch. All of 4S Ranch is now re-opened to residents.
These are mid county to northerly areas that were under threat from the Witch Fire. Things are getting back to something resembling normal. All residential areas of the City of San Diego are also able to return home.
Harris Fire
Harris Ranch Road & Hwy 94
San Diego CountyThis fire has burned 81,100 acres and is 10 percent contained. The fire started October 21 and is burning at Harris Ranch Road and both sides of Highway 94 in Portrero in San Diego County. There have been 25 civilian injuries and one death as well as seven firefighter injuries on this fire. An estimated 200 homes have been destroyed or damaged. 1,500 homes are still threatened.
4500 people have been evacuated and additional evacuations are being ordered. The communities of Chula Vista, San Diego, San Miguel, Portrero, Barrett Junction, Barett Lake area, Engineer Springs, Dulzura, Deerhorn Valley, Lawson Valley, Jamul, Lyons Valley and homes along Millar Ranch Road are threatened. 1,611 firefighters are assigned under unified command. The estimated cost of this fire to date is $3.4 million. Harris Fire Information Line (619) 590-3160.
fact sheet (.pdf)
Witch Fire
Witch Creek Area East of Ramona
San Diego CountyThis fire has burned 197,990 acres and is 20 percent contained. Mandatory evacuations are in place for the community of Julian and there is still a threat to Pine Hills, Cuyamaca, Wynola, Santa Ysabel, Alpine, and Harbison Canyon. Fire progression has slowed to the west, southwest, and northwest. Residents are being allowed to return to portions of the communities of Poway, Escondido, Rancho Santa Fe, San Diego and Rancho Bernardo. Wildcat Canyon is closed. Highway 67 is closed from Poway to Ramona.
645 homes, 30 commercial properties, and 50 outbuildings have been destroyed. 250 homes, 10 commercial properties and 50 outbuildings have been damaged. 5,000 residences, 1,500 commercial properties, and 300 outbuildings are currently threatened. 22 firefighters have been injured on this fire. 2,619 firefighters are assigned to this incident under unified command. The estimated cost of this fire to date is $5.3 million.
Poomacha Fire Highway 76, Pauma Valley San Diego CountyThis fire started October 23 as a structure fire on the Lajolla Indian Reservation. It has burned 35,000 acres and is 20 percent contained. 50 homes have been destroyed and 2,000 homes are threatened currently.
Evacuations are in progress in Valley Center. The communities of Valley Center, Rincon, Pauma Valley, Hidden Meadows, Deer Springs, Vista and Palomar are threatened. This fire has resulted in 12 firefighter injuries. 859 firefighters are currently assigned to this fire under unified command with CAL FIRE and the Cleveland National Forest. The estimated cost of this fire to date is $950,000. Poomacha Fire
Horno/Ammo Fire Camp Pendleton San Diego CountyThe Horno/Ammo Fire has burned 17,000 acres since October 23. It is currently 40-50 percent contained. The Horno Fire has two heads, one north bound tied into Basilone Road and the other south bound tied into Aliso Canyon Road. Firing Operations are being conducted on the northern head from San Onofre to Camp Horno and along Canyon Road to Bailone Road.
Rice Fire
Rice Canyon
San Diego CountyThis fire has burned 9,000 acres in Rice Canyon in Northern San Diego County and is 30 percent contained. 206 homes, 2 commercial properties and 40 outbuildings have been destroyed. 400 homes are threatened currently. Evacuation orders are in effect for Fallbrook and outlying areas affecting 35,000 residents. One firefighter injury has been reported. Fire spread has slowed due to decreased winds, however, the fire has potential for increased growth. 1,095 firefighters are assigned to this fire under unified command. The estimated cost of this fire is $1.2 million.
No one hurt in Ramona chopper crash
The helicopter that crashed in the Ramona area less than an hour ago was carrying three SDG&E employees who were surveying areas for energy restoration, SDG&E spokeswoman Jenny Redmond said.
Those folks do hard dangerous work in the best of times. Glad to know they're not hurt.
What I consider to be one of the best signs the worst is behind us:
11:12 a.m. Potrero residents will be allowed to reenter today at 12:00 pm.
Highway 94 will remain closed west of Potrero.
The Tecate Border Crossing will reopen to passenger traffic today at 12:00 pm.
Still a lot of threat to various east county areas from the Harris Fire, but this was the area that started it.
8:18 a.m. - Evacuation Notice Lifted for Olive Hill Area of Fallbrook. The County of San Diego has lifted the evacuation order for parts of the Olive Hill area in Fallbrook. They include: All residents that have access to their homes from Highway 76 to Burma Road. IDs will be checked All other areas in Bonsall, south of Highway 76 are open and require no check-in.
5:35 a.m. - FEMA has announced that residents who have sustained losses in the wildfires can begin applying Thursday, October 25 for assistance. You can apply by calling 1-800-621-FEMA. You can also register online by visiting www.fema.gov. The toll free number will operate from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. Monday through Sunday.
Here's that link: http://www.fema.gov/
UPDATE 2 (1430)
Mini-air force, weather unite to wage war on fires
11:51 a.m. Rancho Santa Fe evacuation order partially lifted. Residents of Rancho Santa Fe can reenter their homes with the exception of the following: Del Dios Highway Community of Del DiosReentry access will be limited to residents only on the following streets:
Las Colinas
El Mirador
La Valle Plateada
El Vuelo
Zumaque
El Sicomoro Street
1:12 p.m. Correction on Tecate border crossing. The point of entry will remain closed until further notice.
Current Road Closures in San Diego County
Pauma SR 76 -- Pauma Reservation Road to SR 79 Closed
Rancho San Diego SR 94 -- Steele Canyon to Forest Gate Closed
Santa Ysabel SR 79 -- SR 78 Bear Valley Parkway Closed
Valley Center SR 76 -- Cole Grade to SR 79 Closed
Valley Center SR 76 -- Mission to Old Hwy 395 Closed
Ramona SR 67 -- NB Scripps/Poway Parkway to Highland Valley Closed
Jamul Lawson Valley -- entire length Closed
Jamul Skyline Truck Trail -- entire length Closed
Jamul Honed Springs -- SR 94 to Lyons Valley
Otay Otay Lakes -- Wueste to SR 94 Closed
Fallbrook I-15 off ramps to Mission Closed
Lakeside Wildcat Canyon -- Willow to San Vicente Closed
Valley Center Couser Canyon -- SR 76 to Lilac Closed
Valley Center Lilac -- SR 76 to Couser Canyon Closed
Escondido Via Rancho Pkwy -- I-15 to Del Dios Hwy Closed
Escondido Via Loma Vista -- Via Rancho Pkwy to end Closed
Escondido Quit Hills -- Felicita to Via Rancho Pkwy
Fire summary as of 2:12 pm today
Witch Fire (southern North County): 198,000 acres, 20% contained, Mandatory evacuations are in place for the community of Julian and there is still a threat to Pine Hills, Cuyamaca, Wynola, Santa Ysabel, Alpine, and Harbison Canyon. Fire progression has slowed to the west, southwest, and northwest.
645 homes, 30 commercial properties, and 50 outbuildings have been destroyed. 250 homes, 10 commercial properties and 50 outbuildings have been damaged. 5,000 residences, 1,500 commercial properties, and 300 outbuildings are currently threatened.
Harris Fire (East County): 81,000 acres, 10% contained. 4500 people have been evacuated and additional evacuations are being ordered. The communities of Chula Vista, San Diego, San Miguel, Portrero, Barrett Junction, Barett Lake area, Engineer Springs, Dulzura, Deerhorn Valley, Lawson Valley, Jamul, Lyons Valley and homes along Millar Ranch Road are threatened.
Poomacha Fire (Northeast portion of the county): 35,000 acres, 20% contained. Evacuations are in progress in Valley Center. The communities of Valley Center, Rincon, Pauma Valley, Hidden Meadows, Deer Springs, Vista and Palomar are threatened.
50 homes have been destroyed and 2,000 homes are threatened currently.
Rice Fire (north county, west of I-15): 9000 acres, 30% contained. Evacuation orders are in effect for Fallbrook and outlying areas affecting 35,000 residents.
206 homes, 2 commercial properties and 40 outbuildings have been destroyed. 400 homes are threatened currently.
Horno/Ammo Fire (Camp Pendleton, northwest corner of county): 17,000 acres, 40-50% contained.
UPDATE 3 (1650)
2:07 p.m. Mandatory evacuation ordered for Lawson Valley and Carveacre. The communities of Lawson Valley and Carveacre have been ordered to evacuate. Residents can take shelter at Qualcomm Stadium or Faith Chapel at 9400 Campo Road in Spring Valley.AMENDED 3:22 p.m. Correction: Lawson Valley and Carveacre Evacuation Shelters. It was previously reported that Lawson Valley and Carveacre evacuees could find shelter at Qualcomm Stadium; however, these residents should instead report to Del Mar Fairgrounds.
Further Clarification: Lawson Valley and Carveacre Evacuation Areas. Carveacres residents must evacuate in the areas:
North of Wilson Creek
South of Pearson Canyon
East of Kearchoffer Flat
West of Horsethief CanyonLawson Valley residents must evacuate in the areas:
South of Loveland Resevoir
North of the Community of Lyons Valley
East of Beaver Hollow
West of Kearchoffer Flats
2:54 p.m. Evacuation order partially lifted for Valley Center. Valley Center residents and businesses may reenter the following areas of Valley Center (according to Thomas Brothers maps): MP 1029: B-7, C-7, D-7, D-6, D-5, E-5, F-4, G-4, H-4, J-4 MP 1030: A-4, B-4, C-4, D-5, E-5, F-6, F-7, G-7, H-7 MP 1049: A-1, B-1 MP 1050: H-1, H-2, J-2, J-3, H-4, G-4, F-5, G-5, G-6, F-6 MP 1051: A-4, B-5, C-6, C-7. D-7 MP 1071: E-1, E-2, E-3, E-4, C-4, D-5, D-6, D-7 MP 1091: D-1, C-2The following areas will remain closed: Paradise Mountain/Skyline Ranch; Palomar Mountain; the Highway 76 corridor from the Pala area to Highway 79; the Rincon, Pala, La Jolla, Pauma and San Pasqual Reservations; the Lake Wohlford area.
Updated road closure and opening information
Lake Wohlford Road will remain open.
Cole Grade Road south of McNalley Road will be opened.
Lilac Road south of McNalley Road will be opened.
Highway 76 from just east of Highway 15 to highway 79 will remain closed.
Why it took so long to get most of the firefighting planes into action
So what if people and animals are dying! It's not important that hundreds of homes were burning! They had bureaucratic turf to defend!
Preliminary evidence seems to indicate quite a bit of arson involved in setting several of the fires.
Barrett Junction Mobile Home Park Destroyed
SAN DIEGO UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT SCHEDULED TO REOPEN TUESDAY, OCT. 30. 3:20 p.m. - San Diego Unified School District to reopen to students Tues, Oct. 30th. Regular hours in effect; Staff to report on Mon, Oct 29th.Palomar Outdoor School, the district's sixth grade camp, will remain closed until further notice. All field trips requiring bus transportation will be canceled through Fri, Nov. 2.
For more information, check the district's web site at www.sandi.net. A special information line is open from 7 a.m. to 5 p.m., Mon-Fri, at (619) 725-8140.
Appears as if the worst current activity is the Poomacha fire along the 76 corridor near Palomar Mountain.and the Harris Fire north of Potrero. Harris fire also appears to have active arms east of Jamul and a smaller one near the 188 between Jamul and Dulzura. Next on the hit list appears to be the Horno fire on Camp Pendleton in the northwest portion of the county, which the onshore breeze might push in Oceanside if it freshens. Rice Canyon appears much diminished, and I don't see any evidence of the original parts of the Witch Fire, although the Poomacha fire has now burned into the same area the Witch Fire went through previously.
Rice Canyon fire confirmed: downed power lines.
4:24 p.m. Citizens residing on Otay Lakes Road to Thousand Trails may return to their homes. Citizens residing in the community of Tecate may return to their homes; the Tecate Border Crossing remains closed.
Probably only one more update tonight.
UPDATE 4 (2010 Final tonight unless something major happens)
Pomerado Hospital, including its emergency department has reopened
NEW EVACUATION (probably due to the Poomacha Fire)
5:17 p.m. The Emergency Alert System (EAS) has been activated. Mandatory evacuation of Lake Henshaw, Mesa Grande, and La Jolla Indian Reservation The EAS message advises that "due to a fire from south and west, residents in the area* west of Hellhole Canyon
* north of Palomar Mountain to Warner Springs
* south of Bear Valley and Rancho Santa Ysabel and
* east of Montezuma Valleyare under a mandatory evacuation notice. Please take the following route Route 79 to S-2 to S-22 to Borrego High School."
5:38 p.m. 2007 Wildfire Fatalities Update Fourteen fire-related deaths of San Diego County residents have occurred during the 2007 Wildfires. This includes seven deaths directly related to the fires, three that occurred during evacuation activities and four that happened after the decedents were evacuated. The most recent fatalities included in these statistics are:* Two sets of unidentified charred remains were reported earlier today. This update includes the positive identification of those two individuals, husband and wife who were found in the rubble of a completely destroyed house on Highland Valley Road in unincorporated Poway during the evening hours of October 24. Victoria Katherine Fox, a 55-year-old female, and John Christopher Bain, a 58-year-old male, were identified via dental records as burn victims.
* Four sets of unidentified charred remains were reported found today in the Potrero area. Medical Examiner's Office Investigators are currently en route; no further information known at this time.
5:58 p.m. Boil Water Orders. The County of San Diego, Department of Environmental Health (DEH) has issued Boil Water Orders and Public Notifications for the following public water systems effective immediately:* Dulzura Café, 17023 Highway 94, Dulzura, CA 91917
* Skyline Ranch Campground,17120 Skyline Truck Trail, Jamul, CA 91935
* Potrero General Store, 25125 Highway 94, Potrero, CA 91963
* Set Free Ministries, 18985 Highway 94, Dulzura, CA 91917Due to the fires these water systems lost pressure in the water distribution system. As a precaution, a Boil Water Order is being issued until laboratory results show the water is free from bacterial contamination. The Boil Water Order will remain in effect until the distribution system has been disinfected and samples confirm the absence of bacteria in the water supply
Fire Map as of 1830. Compared to three hours ago, the Horno Fire is moving significantly towards Oceanside, southeast through Camp Pendleton, and the Harris Fire near Barrett Reservoir has intensified. The Poomacha Fire isn't exactly dying in place, either, in the northeast part of the county. We aren't out of this yet. Let the Horno fire get into north Oceanside and base housing on Pendleton, and we could easily see a doubling of the damage done so far. Not that the Harris Fire and Poomacha Fire are any less concerning to those in their path, but that number is much fewer.
Harris Fire
Harris Ranch Road & Hwy 94
San Diego CountyThis fire has burned 84,000 acres and is 20 percent contained. The fire started October 21 and is burning at Harris Ranch Road and both sides of Highway 94 in Portrero in San Diego County. There have been 21 civilian and 12 firefighter injuries, as well as one death on this fire. 97 homes, 2 commercial properties and 17 outbuildings have been destroyed, and 250 additional structures are damaged. Damage assessments are still being conducted. 1,500 homes are still threatened.
Evacuation orders remain in effect. Re-entry for residents only was allowed in the Thousand Trails, Potrero and Tecate neighborhoods. The communities of San Miguel, Portrero, Barrett Junction, Barett Lake area, Engineer Springs, Dulzura, Deerhorn Valley, Lawson Valley, Jamul, Lyons Valley and homes along Millar Ranch Road are threatened.
Witch Fire
Witch Creek Area East of Ramona
San Diego CountyThis fire has burned 197,990 acres and is 30 percent contained. Mandatory evacuations are in place for the community of Julian and there is still a threat to Pine Hills, Cuyamaca, Wynola, Santa Ysabel, Alpine, and Harbison Canyon. Fire progression has slowed to the west, southwest, and northwest. Residents are being allowed to return to portions of Poway, Escondido, Rancho Santa Fe, San Diego and Rancho Bernardo. Wildcat Canyon is closed. Highway 67 is closed from Poway to Ramona.
1,061 homes, 30 commercial properties, and 175 outbuildings have been destroyed. 62 homes, 10 commercial properties and 50 outbuildings have been damaged. 1,000 residences, 100 commercial properties, and 300 outbuildings are still threatened.
Poomacha Fire
Highway 76, Pauma Valley
San Diego CountyThis fire started October 23 as a structure fire on the Lajolla Indian Reservation. It has burned 38,500 acres and is 30 percent contained. 60 homes and 19 outbuildings have been destroyed. 2,000 homes remain threatened.
Evacuations are in progress in Valley Center. The communities of Valley Center, Rincon, Pauma Valley, Hidden Meadows, Deer Springs, Vista and Palomar are threatened. This fire has resulted in 12 firefighter injuries.
Horno/Ammo Fire
Camp Pendleton
San Diego CountyThe Horno/Ammo Fire has burned 17,000 acres since October 23. It is currently 50 percent contained. The Horno Fire has two heads, one north bound tied into Basilone Road and the other south bound tied into Aliso Canyon Road. Firing Operations are being conducted on the northern head from San Onofre to Camp Horno and along Canyon Road to Bailone Road.
Rice Fire
Rice Canyon
San Diego CountyThis fire has burned 9,000 acres in Rice Canyon in Northern San Diego County and is 40 percent contained. 206 homes, 2 commercial properties and 40 outbuildings have been destroyed. 200 homes are threatened currently. Evacuation orders are in effect for Fallbrook and outlying areas. Portions of Fallbrook have been reopened to residents. Three firefighters injuries have been reported.
Fall brook evacuation partially lifted
County supervisor Dianne Jacob announced at a press conference tonight that residents of Ramona are allowed back into the community. Ramona Municipal Water District customers, however, still cannot use water.
Not even once it's boiled, from an earlier report. Bring drinking, cooking, and washing water with you if you're going back to Ramona.
Morena Village on standby for evacuation
Hauser Wilderness is an 8,000-acre mountainous area that ranges from 2,000-4,000 feet in elevation. It's loaded with old growth of chamise, chaparral and scrub oak. It is a rich, riparian area with woodlands, all fuel for a fire like the Harris Fire.Pine Creek Wilderness is a 13,100-acre area similar to Hauser, only bigger.
But the Hauser Wilderness stretches right up to the Morena Dam, where Cottonwood Creek still runs thanks to a leak in the dam. That small creek, which feeds to Hauser Creek, has created a green belt that goes all the way to Barrett Lake.
Which is where the Harris Fire is burning now. Let Hauser Wilderness catch, and it could go to Lake Morena very easily, and if Pine Creek catches from there, there's nothing but I-8 in the way.
NASA photos of Barrett Lake, which is where Harris Fire is burning now. The Thermal sensor image really helps.
Once again, we're not out of this by any means. Looking at the forecast, the Santa Anas could return tomorrow and Saturday. Julian's Forecast says the same thing. Palomar Mountain forecast says south to southeast winds. Oceanside says slack west winds, which is a blessing. We'll see what happens.
(I'll be making updates to this post today, same as yesterday Scroll down. If you have something to tell me, comment or email danmelson (at) the domain name).
Got an email from a friend of mine. His sister and her husband had already been cut off east of Ramona by the time the evacuation order came, so having no choice, they stayed and fought the fire and saved their house. It caught three times, but they managed to save it - and themselves. They described the fire as a swarm of glowing bumblebees. One small victory, and two larger ones. I'm very happy they didn't become statistics.
Pendleton Fire Cuts I-5 This is north of Oceanside, and only a few miles south of San Onofre. Train Service has been discontinued. Now called the Horno Fire.
Harris Fire shifts course and is now threateng Jamul, east of Chula Vista and South of Rancho San Diego. There's also an evacutation point in that area, at Steele Canyon High School on CA 94. Rancho San Diego (southeast El Cajon) is also under evacuation order and threatened. This fire appears to be more of a threat to Crest and Harbison Canyon now than the Witch Creek Fire.
another list of addresses known to be destroyed
Firefighters making stand high up Palomar Mountain
The top of Palomar has not burned in recorded history, and much of the densely forested mountain has not burned in about 50 years. Although crews have been clearing trees killed by the bark beetle for years, in many places it remains thick with brush and wood debris, and has substantial stands of old-growth forest.
This includes the Palomar Observatory, which for many years was the most powerful telescope in the world. This is Northeast of Escondido, Southeast of Temecula.
The Rice fire in the Fallbrook area was 10% contained as of last night, and they're now saying it has destroyed 200 homes rather than 500. Not precisely good news, but I'll take it, happily.
5:26 a.m. BIRCH HILL EVACUATIONS: Mandatory evacuation Reverse 9-1-1 calls have been sent to 167 residents in Birch Hill near Palomar Mountain . Residents should go to the Temecula Community Recreation Center at 30875 Rancho Vista Road in Temecula3:51 a.m. DE LUZ EVACUATIONS: The Sheriff's Department has activated reverse 9-1-1 calls to alert the residents of De Luz of a mandatory evacuation. De Luz is north of Camp Pendleton . Residents are advised to evacuate on De Luz / Murrieta Road north or Sandia Creek Drive north toward Riverside County .
The Horno Fire at Camp Pendleton has burned 6000 acres and is moving north and west between Las Pulgas Road and the Border Patrol Checkpoint. Camp Pendleton requested the closure of train service, and Metrolink has confirmed that service is shut down from Oceanside to San Clemente
EXPANDED I-5 CLOSURE : The California Highway Patrol has expanded the Interstate 5 closure. The freeway is closed in both directions between Highway 76 and Cristianitos Road due to the fire at Camp Pendleton . Traffic at the south end of the closure is being diverted to Camino del Rey to Old Highway 395 to Interstate 15.
1 a.m. I-5 Closure: California Highway Patrol reports that Interstate 5 is closed in both directions between Las Pulgas Road and Basilone Road in the area of Camp Pendleton due to heavy smoke.
12:28 a.m. FALLBROOK EVACUATIONS : Reverse 9-1-1 was used to issue mandatory evacuations in the communities of Bonsall, San Luis Rey Heights and Winterwarm on the north side of Highway 76. Residents should use Highway 76 heading west away from the fires. SHELTER UPDATE IN OCEANSIDE: The Oceanside Police Department reports that the shelter at El Camino High School is full and evacuees should to go to MiraCosta College at 1 Barnard Drive off of College Avenue, north of Highway 78 in Oceanside .
I said the Bonsall evacuations were coming yesterday, San Luis Rey Heights and Winterwarm are in the same area. These are north of 76 and west of I 15, which appears to be open.
According to CalFire, containment of the Harris Fire is not expected until the 31st! This is largely a function of how rugged the terrain is east of Jamul, where large parts of it are.
I linked this webcam yesterday on Lyon's Peak. At 7AM, I can see flames very close both east and west! East was practically black with smoke. It also gives you an idea of how rugged the terrain is!
Looks like National Weather Service is predicting an end to the Santa Ana As I said yesterday, windshift is a dangerous time because it drives fire in a different direction, where the fighters may not be ready to fight it, but having moist 5 to 10 mph winds is a lot better than dry 50 knot winds.
JULIAN EVACUATED 5:00 a.m. - Approximately 1600 residents and 700 homes have been evacuated. The town has no power or water. Mandatory evacuations will be in effect through Thursday due to the possibility of winds shifting back into town.
Thank the universe for at least one small favor:
11:30 p.m. - California Department of Forestry officials report that a fire that started near El Capitan tonight has burned itself out.
This is just north of I-8, near Alpine, where it could hit any of several large semi-rural communities.
Quotes from CAL FIRE
Poomacha Fire
Highway 76, Pauma Valley
San Diego CountyThis fire started October 23 as a structure fire on the Lajolla Indian Reservation. It has burned 20,000 acres and is uncontained. 50 homes have been destroyed and 2,000 homes are threatened. Evacuations are in progress along the Highway 76 cxorridor. The communities of Valley Center, Rincon Hidden Meadows and Deer Springs are threatened. This fire has resulted in 10 firefighter injuries. 218 firefighters are currently assigned to this fire. Poomacha Fire Information Line (619) 590-3160.
Harris Fire
Harris Ranch Road & Hwy 94
San Diego CountyThis fire has burned 72,000 acres and is 10 percent contained. The fire started October 22 and is burning at Harris Ranch Road and both sides of Highway 94 in Portrero in San Diego County. There have been 21 civilian injuries and one death as well as five firefighter injuries on this fire. 200 homes have been destroyed in this fire. 2000 homes and 500 commercial properties are threatened currently. 4500 people have been evacuated. The communities of Chula Vista, San Diego, San Miguel, Portrero, Barrett Junction, Barett Lake area, Engineer Springs, Dulzura, Deerhorn Valley, Lawson Valley, Jamul, Lyons Valley and homes along Millar Ranch Road are threatened. 1211 firefighters are assigned under unified command. The estimated cost of this fire to date is $2.1 million.
Rice Fire
Rice Canyon
San Diego CountyThis fire has burned 7,500 acres in Rice Canyon in Northern San Diego County and is 10 percent contained. 206 homes have been destroyed. 1,500 homes are threatened. Evacuations are ongoing in the communities of Fallbrook Rainbow Glen and Deluz Canyon. Camp Pendleton and Oceanside are threatened. One firefighter injury has been reported. 723 firefighters are assigned to this fire under unified command including 387 CAL FIRE staff.
Witch Fire
Witch Creek Area East of Ramona
San Diego CountyThis fire has burned 196,420 acres and is one percent contained. 500 homes, 100 commercial properties, and 50 outbuildings have been destroyed. 250 homes, 75 commercial properties and 50 outbuildings have been damaged. 5,000 residences, 1,500 commercial properties, and 300 outbuildings are currently threatened. Mandatory evacuations are in place for the communities of Scripps Ranch, Poway, Rancho Bernardo, Valley Center, San Marcos, and Rancho Santa Fe. Twelve firefighters have been injured on this fire. A CAL FIRE Incident Command Team is in command of this incident with 1,492 firefighters assigned. Wildcat Canyon is closed. Highway 67 is closed from Poway to Ramona.
I had an unconfirmed report that Poomacha had merged with Witch, which would have been bad, but I'm not finding anything official on it, and they do still appear to be separate. Not that I'm within miles of either.
Fire maps updated by channel 8. If you'll notice, the southeast "hook" of the Witch Fire includes an area around a vaguely T or cross shaped lake. That's El Capitan Reservoir, the area of the new fire which had burned itself out last night.
Channel 8
also has another partial list of destroyed homes, and a very few saved. Let's all be happy for those last folks. The way the last three days have gone, I'll take any victory I can get.
UPDATE 1 (0850)
Road Closures
Camp Pendleton I-5 north and south bound Smoke across freeway--closed
Otay Otay Lakes Road from Wueste to SR 94 Closed
Poway/Ramona SR 67 from Slaughter House Canyon to Highland Valley Road Closed
Jamul Skyline Truck Trail (entire length) Closed
Jamul Lawson Valley Road (entire length) Closed
Jamul Blacksmith Road Country Trails east end Closed
Rancho
San Diego Steele Canyon Rd from Willow Glen to Jamul Dr Closed
Lakeside Wildcat Canyon from Willow to San Vicente Closed
Wildcat Canyon has the Barona Casino and a wildlife sanctuary, as well as a fair number of people with only Wildcat Canyon Road going out (both directions). If you've never been on it, it's pretty twisty, and scary in a couple of places.
Skyline Truck Trail in Jamul is their largest "community road".
here's a map of the area
For that matter, here's a map of Wildcat Canyon Road Most of the twists and turns are too small to show on the map!
To debunk a rumor that there's no evac order for Jamul
CALFIRE Website
Harris Fire Harris Ranch Road & Hwy 94 San Diego CountyThis fire has burned 73,000 acres and is 10 percent contained. The fire started October 22 and is burning at Harris Ranch Road and both sides of Highway 94 in Portrero in San Diego County. There have been 21 civilian injuries and one death as well as seven firefighter injuries on this fire. 200 homes have been destroyed in this fire and 250 additional homes have been damaged. 1,500 homes are threatened. 4500 people have been evacuated. The communities of Chula Vista, San Diego, San Miguel, Portrero, Barrett Junction, Barett Lake area, Engineer Springs, Dulzura, Deerhorn Valley, Lawson Valley, Jamul, Lyons Valley and homes along Millar Ranch Road are threatened. 1211 firefighters are assigned under unified command. The estimated cost of this fire to date is $2.5 million.
more info and a couple cool photos here
Channel 8 is now reporting
7:41 a.m. - Interstate 5 South in the Camp Pendleton area is now OPEN, according to the CHP.
NEW: MORE EVACUATION ORDERS LIFTED
7:00 a.m. - The Otay Mesa Voluntary Evacuation has been lifted.Del Mar Heights and Carmel Valley can be re-populated. This encompasses the following grid: south of the city limits, west of Rancho Santa Fe Farms, east of Interstate 5, north of Highway 56.
Since my wife went back to work in Sorrento Mesa this morning, that makes me feel better, as those areas are within a few miles of there.
Looks like the weather service has changed its mind about the Santa Ana ending. Exit, cursing. Wind shift is dangerous, but we're going to have to get past it to beat the fires, so I'd rather have sooner than later. Plus, there was a breeze from the west this morning that's likely offset the fires just enough so that they are in fresh fuel areas again. Blast!
I'm going to shut down for a while, planning to head to the office. If it is safe, I'll get some more pictures from the same place I did yesterday on the way.
UPDATE 2 1130
Photos:
This is looking ESE from Mt. Helix, that same 1400 foot molehill I went up for yesterday's pictures. Tecate Peak is mostly obscured. Smoke looks like it's coming from Lyon's Peak Area, and further east as well.
This is looking south towards San Miguel Mountain, the same as yesterday's photos. Couldn't see any flames, but two sources of smoke vaguely in the Jamul area, just left of center, and about 80% of the way towards the left. Radio reports were saying that a lot of the area had been spared, and the fire was bypassing a lot of stuff.
This was looking NE towards El Cajon Mountain and El Capitan Reservoir. El Cajon city in foreground. Didn't spot any sources of smoke, but they're there - but further out. The smoke here is much more distant that the previous pictures, although it's not obvious from the photo. The sky was actually quite a bit clearer than it was yesterday, which made it reasonable.
This is looking north past Cowles Mountain, which at roughly 1600 feet is the highest point in San Diego. The smoke sources are all at least ten miles past that. For those who are curious, there's a rust colored watertower with aluminum clouds on it to the right of Cowles. My office is about two miles past that, between there and the next ridge.
This is looking west into the main portion of the city. Not endangered by fire, but the smoke is obscuring pretty much everything. The I-8/CA 125 interchange is in the foreground.
UPDATE 3 (1240)
10:01 a.m. President Bush has declared a federal disaster in San Diego County. The President's signature triggers the availability of Federal aid to supplement local recovery efforts. Assistance can include grants for temporary housing and home repairs, low-cost loans to cover uninsured property losses, and other programs to help individuals and business owners recover from the effects of the disaster. FEMA said that those who sustained losses can begin applying for assistance tomorrow by registering online at http://www.fema.gov or by calling 1-800-621-FEMA (3362) or 1-800-462-7585 (TTY) for the hearing and speech impaired. The toll-free telephone numbers will operate from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. PST Monday through Sunday.
11:39 City of Poway partially reopened. City of Poway assessment teams have determined that the entire city except for the High Valley area is safe for residents to return to their homes.
10:54 a.m. Escondido re-entry hotline. Evacuated Escondido residents only can call (760) 839-6262 to find out if they are now being allowed to return to their homes.
updated road closures, mostly in the north county:
More action maps The first few seem updated; the others are older.
Fires update from CAL FIRE: The Harris Fire is now 73,000 acres, suppression costs are at $2.5 million. There have been 7 injuries. 759 Firefighters assigned. The fire was held at the edge of Chula Vista and Spring Valley. The returning onshore flow has moved the fire to the northeast threatening structures along Highway 94 from Jamul to the east and Jamacha to the west. Lyons Peak was burned and the fire jumped perimeter control lines in the area.
The wind seemed to be pretty calm when I was up on Helix. Maybe the Santa Ana is over.
Channel 8 has more updated maps
Unconfirmed report:
11:28 a.m. - Interstate 5 Northbound is no